Anyone who thinks that Sven will be able to gamble on taking a half-fit Wayne Rooney to Germany is sorely mistaken. The decision will be Manchester United's, and they simply will not let him go if there's any chance that he could aggravate his injury and leave them deprived of their best player.
Four years ago David Beckham went to the World Cup when he wasn't close to being fully fit and I don't think United will allow that to happen again. They are the ones who have made a massive financial investment in Rooney and they will be the ones to make a decision. Of course they will do all they can to get him healthy, but they certainly won't take any chances that could see Rooney miss the start of next season.
Of course he's going to want to be there, but he's probably got six major tournaments to come as an England player. He might just have to miss out on this one and ensure he gets the chance in 2008, 2010 and beyond.
Eriksson needs to prepare for this World Cup as if Rooney is not going to be there - plan on him not being around, use these five weeks to prepare the players physically and mentally to succeed without him. If he makes it for the quarter-finals, then that's a bonus, but England have to assume he will not be involved.
There are of course a few things Sven can do - one of which is to bring in a striker as a direct replacement for Rooney. But not one of those players - Peter Crouch, Jermain Defoe, Darren Bent - is ready to start in a World Cup game. I think the England team would be significantly weaker if one of those players were to start alongside Michael Owen.
England have three midfielders who have scored over 50 goals between them this season - that's where they must look for goals, not to a reserve striker. Bringing in another midfielder is the answer, not another striker.
One option is to bring in another central midfielder - perhaps Michael Carrick - to play alongside Frank Lampard, push Steven Gerrard forward and allow him to play in the free role he has occupied many times successfully for Liverpool.
Another is to narrow the midfield, bring David Beckham and one other player inside with Lampard and put Joe Cole in the role he plays for Chelsea, just behind Owen along with Gerrard. But that puts maybe too much pressure on the full-backs to provide the width.
Whichever way Sven chooses to deal with it, I hope for England's sake he doesn't just bring in Crouch as a direct swap for Rooney. He's not really an international footballer, just someone big and awkward enough to cause problems when he comes off the bench. If you ask whether you'd want Crouch or Gerrard playing with Owen for England, it's a question that answers itself.
Changing to that formation might end the English obsession with needing a holding midfielder. After obsessing for years about needing a left-sided player, the English seem to have moved on to fretting about Lampard and Gerrard not being able to play together. As England qualified with ease, it certainly looks as if there's not too much of a problem.
They are both intelligent footballers, they're not going to go bombing forward at the same time against quality opposition, and Gerrard in particular is perfectly capable of staying disciplined and breaking up opposition attacks. We've seen him do it often enough for Liverpool.
But Rooney's absence means that issue may not need to be addressed this summer as Sven is finally forced into doing something other than picking his best players in a straight 4-4-2. Now we'll see whether Eriksson really is a lucky manager, if misfortune has seen him stumble onto a system that will see England win the World Cup. Maybe we'll be hailing him as a miracle man in July.
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